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Korea: What if we just left? - Occhidiangela - 07-28-2003
I was reading up on the 1989- 1999 developments in Korea, and then saw a few news bits this weekend discussing Korea.
I had a weird thought.
What if we just left? Some in South Korea have been advocating that for quite sometime, for their own reasons.
What would happen? My suspicion is that if we left, the folks up North would roll the tanks, fire all guns, and the peninsula would be re unified by the sword, by the artillery shell. The Kim family would finally get to be king of Korea, and Korea would not be worth ruling by the time the shooting stopped.
However, I may be wrong.
Any Koreans out there, lurking? I'd appreciate your thoughts on "Korea for Koreans."
Is unification even possible? Korea is not Germany, the Germany reunification cookie cutter is probably not the answer.
Korea: What if we just left? - Tiffany_Scott - 07-28-2003
I can't believe you asked a question with such an obvious answer. Hell, you immediately answered it correctly YOURSELF. <_<
The only South Koreans advocating a pullout of US troops are the moronic equivalents to the Al Gore types. Meaning the diehard lefties with the huge hardons against Christianity (a religion which has made amazing inroads into South Korea). And if THEY got their way, that little nutcase nerd who runs the commie-north section would--after "reunification"--stamp all those Jesus freaks into their respective coffins so quick you'd barely have time to hear the gunfire... :/
Korea: What if we just left? - Occhidiangela - 07-29-2003
Now, if I was a betting man, I'd bet on the tanks rolling. But I don't always bet correctly.
I bet wrong on The Wall. I did not believe that it would fall in my lifetime. It did.
I did not believe that the Brits and Argies would come to blows. I believed someone would step in and help them mediate their quarrel. I was wrong.
I did not believe a lot of things, and I saw them as a sure bet.
So, even though from all appearances, it seems bloody obvious, I might be missing something important, partly due to the set of lenses I look through.
I don't see it through the "threat to Christians" lens, I see it via a different lens that is at the moment blurry:
What are the long term goals of South Korea? I simply can't imagine that they include being forever "a cannon shot away from total war" for the next 100 years.
Hence the question. I understand the perspective of why our soldiers are there now: to remind the folks up North that we will still pay in blood for South to be free. I just think that there is a bit more to it than that.
Korea: What if we just left? - Bun-Bun - 07-29-2003
Well, I'm not Korean, but I'm afraid I must disagree with your assessment.
Gauging the mind of Kim Jong Il seems an impossible task. We may never know what his internal goals are. If his goal is the maintenance of his own power, a war with any possibility of losing may be an inferior choice to ruling a decrepit, yet loyal state. If his goal is reunification under his rule, then the sound of artillery in Seoul is assured. I just don't know.
Then again, he may be a total nutbar, and therefore even less predictable.
If the tanks do surge forward, I have to think they wouldn't go far. The North's army is large, but in a parlous state, short of even semi-modern weapons and fuel. The South's army is over 600,000 strong, well equipped, trained, and motivated. Removing the 37,000 American troops alters the geopolitical stage more than the military arena. In addition, it would be easy to assume that rapid deployment of American air assets from Japan would provide considerable firepower and virtually instant air supremacy.
During the (First?) Korean War, the North was strongly supported in economic and military terms by China and the USSR. I just can't see any support coming from Russia, and precious little from China.
On the other hand, the North has proven skilled at infiltration in the past, and might prove significant as saboteurs. Also, the proximity of Seoul allows the North to do massive damage without moving an inch, even without the Nuclear Option.
It's that option that concerns me. I see no reason Kim would refrain from nuclear blackmail, and no reason he wouldn't follow through on his threats if he felt a counterstrike from the US unlikely. What do you think about that scenario?
As for unification, I think it's possible if the North completely collapses. Korea has always been pretty monocultural, for better or worse, and I think that would aid in the assimilation and rehabilitation of the North. Deucedly expensive, though.
Korea: What if we just left? - Tiffany_Scott - 07-29-2003
The reason the answer in this case is so blatantly obvious is due to the fact that the little nerd nutcase up north's words and actions have made it ABUNDANTLY clear that even WITH the U.S. military presence, he's contemplating an invasion.
God help us if that little Froot Loop gets diagnosed with terminal cancer. He's the type who would almost certainly respond by
(1) Immediately having the doctor who gave him the bad news killed. Probably after the aforementioned doc had first been tied to a chair, then forced to watch his wife and family raped and murdered by a platoon of soldiers.
(2) Getting a 2nd opinion. Followed by killing THAT doctor too, regardless of the prognosis. Why? Cuz if Doc 2 said he was cancer-free, he would decide the doc was lying just to try and save his skin. And if the doc confirmed he DID in fact have cancer, he'd kill him just to vent. Being the personal physician to a megalomaniac is a lose-lose scenario, you see.
(3) Going for broke. People with HIS worldview cannot accept the idea of the universe continuing to exist without THEM. The idea is simply unthinkable. Therefore it's time to take as many others with him as possible. Why not, along the way he might even pull it off--become IMMORTALIZED!!! in the history books. And even if he failed, all of the resultant explosions, gunfire, screaming, and human misery would certainly brighten up his final days...
My tongue is NOT planted in my cheek, either. I've done some reading about this character, and he almost makes Saddam Hussein seem like a reasonable guy by comparison. For example: as USA TODAY reported not too long ago (no right-wing paper THERE, to be sure), he does things like kill his most loyal personal bodyguard and then throw the man's widow and kids into prison, simply because the guard had snuffed out a cigarette in the ashtray inside his private elevator. :/ THAT ranks right up there with the kind of unbridled insanity we see depicted in the worst of the pagan kings featured in the Old Testament. Yep. Nebudchanezzer and Kim will no doubt get along great in Hell, I imagine...
I referenced the Christians in my previous post merely as a quiet observation. When Vietnam was 're-unified' after the US troop pullout, there was a mass slaughter of Christians THERE, and Kim is even more humorless about "western" religions than were the North Vietnamese rulers...
Korea: What if we just left? - Occhidiangela - 07-29-2003
Thought: Tomorrow morning, clever Chinese assassin makes 1000m shot that sends a 7mm mag through the head of Kim, megalomaniac par excellence. The world gets to see what is inside his head because it is all over the adjacent wall.
What then? The family dynasty is over. Hope?
Oh, and as to the Christians in Viet Nam: some folks called it "Godless Communism" for a good reason, eh?
Korea: What if we just left? - Jester - 07-29-2003
... if the tanks got to rolling, the whole situation would degenerate fairly quickly. The UN proved it was willing to step in when the line of outright aggression was crossed, and I'm pretty sure it would do so again.
The UN would denounce it, and the world would line up behind the South Koreans; North Korea is not winning any popularity contests. Military intervention would be inevitable, probably under a US-led UN aegis.
However, the NK would also have nuclear arms to lob around. That would make the whole situation more than a bit spicy. I'm not interested in seeing Los Angeles explode (outside of the movies).
But, as in so many places (as, for instance, in Israel) there's a difference between ending direct, constant military support, and throwing everyone involved to the wolves. Maybe Kim would understand that pulling troops out is different from a cordial invitation to conquer SK.
Even so, maybe it's best not to tempt Kim Jong Il into overreaching. Saddam Hussein, I could guess. Kim, he's just a lunatic. The price of not calling that bluff is permanent military presence, unless a peace can be brokered.
It's tricky. I'd support staying on the lines, and trying to broker peace. Hopefully we make headway sooner or later. I don't think pulling out would be the end of the world, and it might be a harmless payoff. Are we willing to risk it?
Jester
P.S: Does anyone know how to talk accurately about Korea without qualifying every sentence? If so, please enlighten me.
Korea: What if we just left? - Occhidiangela - 07-29-2003
Quote:P.S: Does anyone know how to talk accurately about Korea without qualifying every sentence? If so, please enlighten me.
I feel a similar confusion. Castro and Kim are two of the last holdout Cold Warriors, though Kim is the son of The Original Kim, a man of, as I understand it, a bit more substance and a bit less bombast, and a True Believer in his cause. Don't know enough. Unlike Tito, another Cult Of Personality Sort of fellow, he was able to pass it all down to Sonny.
I was in, some years ago, a serious war game that covered that Peninsula and its two nations. An assumption was: no nukes, yes gas, yes bio. Everything else, to include role players for some 40 national governments, were included. *head swims* Complex. When the "Fight's on" light illuminated, lots of things happened real fast, and they did not stop happening for about four days. And I saw only part of the action.
To sum up: It was all ugly.
That experience led me to think, after readings of some stuff from a few years back, very hard about assumptions. That in turn, and a few other things lately, led me to ask the question, because I think that we have been living with a lot of assumptions for a long time, and maybe some of them have past their expiry date.
Korea: What if we just left? - Doc - 07-29-2003
That Kim fellow is crazier then a sh!thouse rat. He's a few sammiches short of a picnic basket.
I have heard several folk say he is even nuttier then Saddam, and they could not be more correct. This man, with out a doubt, is schizo-typal. And he is probably not taking medications. And no, that is not my personal opinion. He is obcessed with poisons, personal plots, and his paranoia runs deep as a river. The man needs clozaril, or, as mentioned, a clean sniper shot from a 1000 paces away. Letting a full blown schizoid run your country is just not a good idea.
And while the Christian angle might be an aside, this is the nutjob who ordered his men to fire a few mortar rounds into a World Vision foriegn aid camp. I dunno if anybody knows who World Vision is, or what they do, but I assure you, all they want to do is give kids some vaccinations and a little food. Maybe a Hershey Bar. They are not bad sorts, and certainly not a threat to anybody.
This is a situation that I watch, at times with great interest. It will be quite a show I think when something happens.
Korea: What if we just left? - Tal - 07-29-2003
Occhidiangela,Jul 28 2003, 05:45 PM Wrote:Is unification even possible? Korea is not Germany, the Germany reunification cookie cutter is probably not the answer.Since many of my thoughts on this subject have been covered very well by Jester I'll limit myself to this question:
Yes I think unification is possible. I suspect that it will be done as you suggested, by fire and tank. My hope is that it won't be by force. Although the latter isn't remotely possible under the current administrations, even if Kim were to be removed from power by force or nature. My fear is for what maniacs lurk behind the throne. ;) My opinion is that peaceful reunification isn't going to come about until after the North Koreans and South Koreans have spent some time bloodying each other's nose like school yard bullies.
Korea: What if we just left? - Archon_Wing - 07-29-2003
I feel sorry for the people of North Korea. While they suffer under the brutal regiume of a harsh dictatorship (The living conditions there are not exactly accomodating) , their leaders are making all these kinds of threats which may as well end up killing us all.
Korea: What if we just left? - Jester - 07-29-2003
... his favorite movie is Titanic. He refuses to watch it again, for fear its incredible emotional power would upset him too much. He describes Leo DiCaprio's performance as "the best ever".
Um, yeah, he's completely gone. I suggest 500 mg of thorazine, every hour, on the hour. Maybe throw some arsenic in, for good luck.
Jester
Korea: What if we just left? - Occhidiangela - 07-29-2003
Well, here's an idea.
We dumped billions of dollars into Russia for about 5 years, and all we got for that effort, is seems, is a very rich Russian Mafia.
OK, in the spirit of LBJ, who was of course a complete rube regarding Asians and Communists both, here is an approach.
Offer to buy every tank and every artillery tube at a fixed price. Cash. It can always, like the equimpent in the CFE treaties that were cut apart and scrapped, be sold for scrap metal.
Selling off the military hardware for cash provides a capital pool for investing in long term infrastructure projects that help Korea get caught back up economically.
I realize that this is a capitalist approach to a Communist leadership, and also that the leadership might just take it all and gamble it away in Monte Carlo, but
It's an idea that does not involve dead South Koreans in Seoul and provides a jump start of real capital in real currency to let NK get back on at least a decent level for the benefit of the average Cho.
Korea: What if we just left? - Jester - 07-29-2003
... the US (and France, and Russia, and all the usual players) are unloading copious arms onto the world market. Even if they aren't sold directly to NK, they get sold to nations, who sell their newly obsolete equipment, who sell to a middleman, who funnels it through the Cayman Islands, who sells them to good old Mr. Kim Jong Il.
So, just as likely, he'd use the money to revamp and modernize as rebuild and prosper. And the US would get stuck with either the bill, or with a whole lot of outdated military hardware it doesn't need.
"...the benefit of the average Cho."
Ooh, that was good. I'm keeping that one.
Jester
Korea: What if we just left? - Occhidiangela - 07-29-2003
I see what you are saying about the international arms market. I guess a similar initiative to CFE has been tried in Korea, and has failed. Seems I read something along those lines a while back.
(CFE = Conventional Forces, Europe)
The buy back disarmament would have to come with security guarantees from:
Japan
SK
China
US
Anyone else who will offer up
The "buy up" would be done as a form of foreign currency credits, to be transferred as credits for:
Grain
Concrete
Steel RE Rods
Oil
Medicine.
Textiles
You name it. Pres Clinton was acting out of the box when he tried to crack open the door with his food for "let us help you with clean nukes" offer, and many saw him as having duped himself during the process. (I will confess that I was amazed at the apparent guillibility displayed at the time. It looked like an LBJ-esque "I can cut a deal with Ho, sure I can!")
The weapons at present are, for NK, a sunk cost. They buy them security, and a chip to play in the continuing game in Panmounjon.
Asking them to disarm with no recoup of that investment is a COMPLETE non starter. I realize it could be argued that such is a self induced bit of extortion, but even in my country, some cities have "small arms buy backs" that get some Saturday Night Specials off the streets. Of course, I have heard from cops that all that does is create a rash of gun thefts right before the buy back deadline! :)
I realize that a lot of this is weird thoughts, and may just be caffeine induced foolishness.
Korea: What if we just left? - Tiffany_Scott - 07-29-2003
Quote:His favorite movie is Titanic. He refuses to watch it again, for fear its incredible emotional power would upset him too much. He describes Leo DiCaprio's performance as "the best ever".
IF you're serious concerning the above quote, it actually gives me a little hope. Because if Kim experienced genuine emotional empathy for the characters depicted in that movie... even if it was just young Chippewa Falls Jack...
*thinks*
Then again, the personal bodyguard Kim recently ordered killed was a living, flesh-and-blood human being who had pledged his life to protect him. The man's widow and kids were tossed into a North Korean jailcell (equivalent to a medieval dungeon cell), and have probably been brutalized to death by now, or died from disease or malnutrition.
:blink:
<_<
:(
Doc's right. Kim's crazier than a sh!thouse rat. Hell ,not even CHINA has a lot of faith in dealing with this guy... and the commie dinosaurs who currently run China are pretty Napoleonesque in their own right...
Korea: What if we just left? - WarBlade - 07-29-2003
Um. What the . . . ??? :huh:
So far everything I've ever heard about Kim Jong-Il adds together to paint the man in my eyes as an eccentric, perhaps vain, highly intelligent oddball. Every post on this thread paints the man in my eyes as a megalomaniac psychopath. That's a HUGE gap.
There's a missing link somewhere.
I notice the detractors here are predominantly American (if not all). Could it be that your frequently evident media slant problem has resurfaced again? :unsure: So I just went and 'Googled' "kim jong il profile", read four of the results, found they appear consistant with my earlier impressions and am left wondering where the hell you people are getting your information from??? :blink:
Korea: What if we just left? - Tiffany_Scott - 07-29-2003
Warblade, the recent account in USA TODAY concerning the bodyguard who snuffed out a cig in Kim's private ashtray was bang-on, sourced to the hilt, printed internationally.. and I'm sure kim WANTED it to be.
I've read QUOTES from this guy. Many of them. If you think he's intelligent, then I hope by your measurement I'm stupid. :/
IQ means dick anyway. Hitler had IQ, and all it did was get six million Jews smart-bombed. Ted Bundy was a pretty bright guy too, and it only enabled him to slice dead college girls up into smaller metric fractions.
Sounds like your biased against Americans, maybe. Because you see, there's a whole crapload of UN-member countries that neither I nor my government is overly fond of. Yet most of them have leaders who are acceptably rational and don't keep me or Colin Powell up at nights, pacing our bedroom floors.
Kim does. Kim smacks of a true headcase, and my comments about a terminal cancer diagnosis are bang-on I bet. Which makes me hope that his personal physician(s) are savvy enought to always bob their chins cheerily up and down after each new check-up, and assure Kim everything is just dandy inside his skin, even if they have a pap-smear back at their labs crawling with malignant cells scraped just a few hours ago from the inside of Kim's copper plumbing... :unsure:
Korea: What if we just left? - Doc - 07-29-2003
Crazy?
Well, anybody who shells a foriegn aid camp can't be totally lucid, at least in my book. Megalomaniac? Nothing I have read supports that, at least not yet. Just schizoid behaviour.
Of course, if you were so hated by so many people and had everybody and his grandmother wanting to kill you, you might be a little paranoid as well. I, er, um, well I wont go into it, but I can understand that.
I got my info based on an FBI profiler doing a study on this fellow. Was a good read.
Korea: What if we just left? - Griselda - 07-29-2003
Doc, Scott, please remember the rules:
Quote:Keep it clean.
It's PG-13 here. Computer games, even those rated "mature" by the ESRB, will have young kids playing them. There's no need to have swear words in your posts - they aren't conducive to intelligent debate or strategy discussion anyhow. We run a clean site and we hope that the posters will respect that.
Using symbols to bypass the swaer filter is not appreciated.
-Griselda