11.13.08

[Lissa]

Let's assume a large 50% attrition rate per year. How many years does it take to cut the numbers from 10 million or so to where it's not economical to do an expansion? 6? 7? 8?

At 2 years per expansion, figure 4 to 5 expansions max as at that point WoW will be 10 years old (since release, getting close to 15 years since inception, even Microsoft doesn't plan to have an O/S around that long with XP being the exception).

The conclusions you draw are based on extrapolating a very few data points to predict the course of a very-far-outlying data point. The course of WoW history is as likely emulate the Microsoft model as that of prior MMOs.

We also haven't had a great deal of MMOs until the last 5 years. Right now we have UO, EQ 1, AC 1, and Lineage 1. Now, look at their subscribers at their heights compared to 5 to 6 years from release. All of said MMOs have dropped to about half the number of subscribers at the 5 to 6 year mark (remember, at one time Lineage 1 *was* the 800 pound Gorilla for world wide MMOs). If someone can produce a MMO with the winning formula WoW has with newer technology, I can see Blizzard losing market share. They'll lose it slower than the above listed MMOs, but they will lose it if someone can make a more compelling MMO.

WoW is right now at the 4 year mark, we'll see in the next 2 years how things pan out.