universal healthcare

[kandrathe]

One key, however, is that these are social costs, not just government programs. If those health care liabilities were disowned by the government somehow, the costs wouldn't vanish. They'd simply transferred onto the public in one of two ways: either people stop getting health care, or the public simply buys privately at the same (or higher) prices as the public version. Either way, society is as badly off as if the government were trying to pay for it all, or worse.

Once health care is a freely given away commodity (by the government), perhaps with some rationing even, I believe the populous will consume all that the government has to offer. The wages of care givers will be more or less fixed in that area, and so, as in other countries with socialized medicine, the number of care givers will never satisfy the demand. This is a recipe for price inflation for those that pay, and limited care and waiting lists for those who do not pay.

The bottom line as I see it on this health care bill...

We talked already about the anarchy of law, where it will cost $695 to break the law, or many thousands to follow the law. We talked about the budget gimmicks, double counting of savings, and other accounting shenanigans to create an entirely fictitious unbelievable CBO number.

Of the 30 odd million uninsured, 9.6 million of them are in the US illegally. 12+ million will be added to the medicaid roles by raising the lower threshold of the % of the poverty level that qualify and the States are expected to pick up these additional costs. A $500 billion cut to medicare, which will result in fewer services, rationing and waiting lists for seniors. So the two huge deficit running government programs will get worse, both in driving up costs and offering poorer services.

Some 8 or so million of the uninsured will be now covered by raising the age of what constitutes a child (for insurance purposes) to age 26, so ostensibly, children will remain on their parents insurance (while their plans remain solvent). Drug companies get richer by adding a bunch of new customers, and will be the beneficiary of the closure of the "donut hole". The government will implement one of the largest tax increases ever by by applying income tax rates to rent, interest, dividends. For rental income, this will be directly passed onto low income renters, and businesses that lease property. And, the mandate on employers to provide 100% coverage of face a minuscule fine ($2000 for the first 30 employees) will encourage rather than discourage employers (especially those that hire low income people) to skip providing health benefits and just pay the fines. Estimates are the up to 10 million people will lose their insurance due to employers ending their plans altogether. The non-partisan Lewin Group estimates that Obamacare will drive a total of 56 million people off their current health care insurance. New federal regulations and punitive taxes on high-ticket medical expenditures such as medical devices, prescription drugs, and high-cost insurance plans will drive up the health insurance premiums, particularly in the individual market.

The whole risk aspect of health insurance disappears due to removing the lifetime cap on benefits, and the denial of people with pre-existing conditions. Group health plans will need to jack up their prices to cover chronically ill people now. And, yes, this does sound great when you are envisioning people with diabetes. I too thought it was pretty lame to offer insurance to those who didn't actually need it. But then, what about the epidemic of restless leg syndrome diagnosed in California which qualifies one to get prescriptions for pot? I really do want people who need health care to be able to get it, but the bulk of the cost will be consumed by this kind of general abuse by the not so sick. Yes, so we will stick it to those greedy insurance groups who make the measly 3.5% profit now, and drive them out of business. What's making us sick is an epidemic of diagnoses

I don't believe it will fix what is wrong with the US health insurance market, and it is not a baby step in the right direction unless you believe that perhaps destruction of the market is the correct first step.

P.S. Another interesting read from Cato -- Bipartisan indifference to controlling health care costs.

<blockquote>"Today, of every dollar spent on health care in this country, just 13 cents is paid for by the person actually consuming the goods or services. Roughly half is paid for by government, and the remainder is covered by private insurance. And, as long as someone else is paying, consumers have every reason to consume as much health care as is available.
...
This all but guarantees that health care costs and spending will continue their unsustainable path. And that is a path leading to more debt, higher taxes, fewer jobs and a reduced standard of living for all Americans."</blockquote>