03-15-2004, 08:22 AM
But I disagree that we're giving freedom at the point of a gun, that's an oxymoron. Last I checked, we weren't putting a gun to the head of the Iraqi council to create a constitution. In fact, I find the phrase absurd and as a final desperate grab by Pete and you to object to or ignore post-war results where you have a very weak argument instead of objecting to pre-war methods where you have a solid argument.
What we did was liberate at the point of a gun to the head of oppressors, not to the people we are liberating. All we can ever do is remove the oppressors (oh, pardon my error, I forgot Sadaam was "democratically elected"), it will be up to the people of Iraq to choose freedom from here. And I agree, at this point, we're at a wait and see scenario. I do not claim that analogies to the past mean certainty of the future, only a certainty that we must try.
That leads me back full circle to my original point. When push comes to shove, you're relying on predictions when they haven't panned out too well in the past and in which you can't seem to establish any historical context for them (after all, that's how people make predictions, off analogy to the past, not gut feeling). In fact, just for the record, bear with me as I go through a few predictions that haven't been quite vindicated yet.
1) Prediction: The rising up of the Arab street.
Reality: No major groundswell of prolonged rioting can be pointed to in any country. Fear and anger in some sectors yes but no unstability. In fact, the pro-freedom forces in Iran, using Iraq and Afghanistan as moral support, are in fact rising and threatening the Iranian theocracy.
2) Prediction: A huge expansion of terrorist recruitment and an explosion of terrorist acts
Reality: We've had a number attacks but nothing like the daily bombings the fearmongers were predicting
3) Prediction: Loss of whatever friendly support we'd gotten from Arab countries or the toppling of any pro-US (or more realistically anti-terrorism) by Muslum fanatics.
Reality: Well, I'll just name countries, I'll leave it to you to fill in the blanks. Pakistan. Lybia. Saudi Arabia. Kuwait. There may be more but that's enough.
4) Prediction: Quagmire in Afghanistan
Reality: Please allow me a moment to blow a raspberry to the Taliban. Pffttt!!! =D
5) Prediction: Quagmire in Iraq
Reality: Invasion in 3 weeks. Shift of focus in terrorists from attacking occupying troops to attacking Iraqi citizens. The success in Al Qaeda's strategy can be seen in the creation of the Iraqi constitution. Pfft to Zarqawi. Many pffts in fact.
6) Prediction: Thousands or even hundreds of thousands of both invading troops and civilians in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Reality: Only hundreds of thousands of dead are found in those mass graves the UN wanted to ignore.
7) Prediction: Arabs can't handle democracy
Reality: Still a wait and see but two constitutions later and compromise on the role of Islam in Iraqi government, not a prediction I'd invest stock in if you expect an expected return ;)
Shall I keep going or have I made my point? You keep making predictions, we'll keep acting and see if they pan out.
I appreciate the conversation, hope you do too :)
What we did was liberate at the point of a gun to the head of oppressors, not to the people we are liberating. All we can ever do is remove the oppressors (oh, pardon my error, I forgot Sadaam was "democratically elected"), it will be up to the people of Iraq to choose freedom from here. And I agree, at this point, we're at a wait and see scenario. I do not claim that analogies to the past mean certainty of the future, only a certainty that we must try.
That leads me back full circle to my original point. When push comes to shove, you're relying on predictions when they haven't panned out too well in the past and in which you can't seem to establish any historical context for them (after all, that's how people make predictions, off analogy to the past, not gut feeling). In fact, just for the record, bear with me as I go through a few predictions that haven't been quite vindicated yet.
1) Prediction: The rising up of the Arab street.
Reality: No major groundswell of prolonged rioting can be pointed to in any country. Fear and anger in some sectors yes but no unstability. In fact, the pro-freedom forces in Iran, using Iraq and Afghanistan as moral support, are in fact rising and threatening the Iranian theocracy.
2) Prediction: A huge expansion of terrorist recruitment and an explosion of terrorist acts
Reality: We've had a number attacks but nothing like the daily bombings the fearmongers were predicting
3) Prediction: Loss of whatever friendly support we'd gotten from Arab countries or the toppling of any pro-US (or more realistically anti-terrorism) by Muslum fanatics.
Reality: Well, I'll just name countries, I'll leave it to you to fill in the blanks. Pakistan. Lybia. Saudi Arabia. Kuwait. There may be more but that's enough.
4) Prediction: Quagmire in Afghanistan
Reality: Please allow me a moment to blow a raspberry to the Taliban. Pffttt!!! =D
5) Prediction: Quagmire in Iraq
Reality: Invasion in 3 weeks. Shift of focus in terrorists from attacking occupying troops to attacking Iraqi citizens. The success in Al Qaeda's strategy can be seen in the creation of the Iraqi constitution. Pfft to Zarqawi. Many pffts in fact.
6) Prediction: Thousands or even hundreds of thousands of both invading troops and civilians in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Reality: Only hundreds of thousands of dead are found in those mass graves the UN wanted to ignore.
7) Prediction: Arabs can't handle democracy
Reality: Still a wait and see but two constitutions later and compromise on the role of Islam in Iraqi government, not a prediction I'd invest stock in if you expect an expected return ;)
Shall I keep going or have I made my point? You keep making predictions, we'll keep acting and see if they pan out.
I appreciate the conversation, hope you do too :)