Wow Kerry took the Florida primary!

[--Pete]

Hi,

Remember that Aznar's group was predicted to win before the attack, although narrowly. The reaction to the attack, both by the spin doctors in the Popular party and the people is what led to their defeat.

Apparently, the people changed their mind during the second half of the election day: "The conservatives' defeat was unexpected. Pre-election polls had projected the Popular Party, led by Mariano Rajoy, would win comfortably, and even some exit polls Sunday showed it might win."

Seems that the election was close, "But when the ballots were tallied, the Socialists netted 10.9 million to the PP's 9.6 million. Turnout was 77 percent". Close enough that the uncertainty in polls would have failed to call it anyway.

Did some people change their minds? Sure. Did the Popular Party have the lead prior to the attacks because it supported the USA or in spite of that fact? From other polls I've seen on support for the USA in European countries, I'd say the latter. Each individual assigns different importance to different issues. The attack probably changed individual's assessment of the *importance* of supporting the USA rather than their support position overall. Those that were willing to vote Popular *in spite* of the Popular's position on Iraq decided that that issue had become more important. Sufficiently so that they voted the other way. Or not. Tentative guesses based on incomplete evidence are worth little.

News quotes taken from http://www.comcast.net/News/INTERNATIONAL/...7356bf336c.html

--Pete