03-06-2003, 09:19 PM
Let us suppose that Iraq as we know it now falls before an American led invasion, and that Saddam Hussein and his advisors, flunkies, aides, and hangers on are sent off either to Den Hague or to Lybia or other suitably 'liberal' Arab nation to pine away in exile and spend their Swiss bank account funds.
What then, for Iraq and her people? What then for the land of the Fertile Crescent, the land between the Two Rivers? Most importantly, what form of government will the people of Iraq adapt to carry them into the future?
Will it be a case of 'meet the new boss, same as the old boss' where another strong character rises to leadership after some election is sponsored by the US, the UN, or other multinational body of do-gooders takes place and puts the wrong guy in charge? Will the Caudillo return with a new name? Will Abouk Al Diem then become the latest problem for the region?
Will Iraq adopt a republican/representative form of government? Do they have the experience and depth to handle the bloody hard road that such a change would burden them with? Will 'Kurdistan' break free after yet more blood flows?
Who will try to influence their future? Besides the arrogant West, their neighbors will act to ensure that their new neighbor is one with whom they can live. It is in their interest to do so.
Let's have a look at who those folks are.
Turkey: a secular state made up mostly of Muslims. The Military, by the Turkish constitution, is the guarantor of the nation NOT reverting to the Caliphate or other Theocracy. Interesting difference to the American system, to say the least, or the severe civilian control of the military used by the Soviet system.
Iran: an Islamic republic
Syria: a Dictatorship
Jordan: a progressive Monarchy
Saudi Arabia: a Reactionary Monarchy
The rest of the Gulf States: Princedoms.
Since I contend that you cannot inflict democracy on people at the point of the bayonet, I have had to consider the most likely outcome is, given the substantial Shiite population in the south, that an Islamic Republic is the most likely form of government to evolve, simply because Islam is a common cultural assumption made by most Iraqi's, even if sects differ strongly in their views of the Koran's meaning, and because Iran would want their neighbor to be more like them, even if their neighbor is an Arab, vice a Persian, nation.
Other paths?
What royalty could be restored to Iraq, in this day and age, so that the Kings and Sheiks of the Arab world would welcome a brother aristrocrat back as a neighbor, whom they could then screw out of as much of his oil revenue as possible? :) And would The West put up with such a replacement to Saddam? I don't see that as a likely development, but am hoping someone here knows more about the old aristocratic families of Iraq, descendants of Faisal, who may be maneuvering to create a constitutional monarchy there post-Saddam
Back to the Islamic Republic of Iraq, the scenario most likely to come to pass.
A natural haven for old school, hard line muslims, the sort who Saddam has sent packing for years. A natural homeland for any number of folks like Abu Nidal or Al Quaeda who wish to pursue certain global goals.
A land less likely to make war on their neighbors, other than to support the fall of every royal family in the Persian Gulf to allow for the Islamic Republic, as a form of government, to spread all over the heartland of Islam.
In short, what sort of karmic judo is America about to experience when it is all over? I wonder.
Alternatively, Iraq could turn in the direction of Turkey, and given its ties to a lot of European and Western governments, that path is also likely, as well as one well backed by trading partners all over Europe, as well as economic ties to Turkey, as well as the US, and even Israel, whose relationship with Turkey continues to improve every year.
What I don't see happening is a "US style democracy" evolving. I am concerned that some people cling to that fantasy.
Having forced a change, for better or for worse, how likely is it that the US could repeat the Marshall Plan type approach that allowed us to convert our enemies into our allies and trading partners after WW II? Unlike then, ours are not the only banks with the capital to finance the rebuilding of Iraq. Too many others have the cash and a spoon in this stew. It, does not strike me as a realistic expectation of any post war Persian Gulf order to think that America will be seen as a liberator in the way the the French saw us in 1944/45.
So which will it be, and why?
A constitutional monarchy?
An Islamic Republic?
A Progressive Muslim State, ala Turkey?
The long term peace and stability of the Middle East rides on the outcome.
What then, for Iraq and her people? What then for the land of the Fertile Crescent, the land between the Two Rivers? Most importantly, what form of government will the people of Iraq adapt to carry them into the future?
Will it be a case of 'meet the new boss, same as the old boss' where another strong character rises to leadership after some election is sponsored by the US, the UN, or other multinational body of do-gooders takes place and puts the wrong guy in charge? Will the Caudillo return with a new name? Will Abouk Al Diem then become the latest problem for the region?
Will Iraq adopt a republican/representative form of government? Do they have the experience and depth to handle the bloody hard road that such a change would burden them with? Will 'Kurdistan' break free after yet more blood flows?
Who will try to influence their future? Besides the arrogant West, their neighbors will act to ensure that their new neighbor is one with whom they can live. It is in their interest to do so.
Let's have a look at who those folks are.
Turkey: a secular state made up mostly of Muslims. The Military, by the Turkish constitution, is the guarantor of the nation NOT reverting to the Caliphate or other Theocracy. Interesting difference to the American system, to say the least, or the severe civilian control of the military used by the Soviet system.
Iran: an Islamic republic
Syria: a Dictatorship
Jordan: a progressive Monarchy
Saudi Arabia: a Reactionary Monarchy
The rest of the Gulf States: Princedoms.
Since I contend that you cannot inflict democracy on people at the point of the bayonet, I have had to consider the most likely outcome is, given the substantial Shiite population in the south, that an Islamic Republic is the most likely form of government to evolve, simply because Islam is a common cultural assumption made by most Iraqi's, even if sects differ strongly in their views of the Koran's meaning, and because Iran would want their neighbor to be more like them, even if their neighbor is an Arab, vice a Persian, nation.
Other paths?
What royalty could be restored to Iraq, in this day and age, so that the Kings and Sheiks of the Arab world would welcome a brother aristrocrat back as a neighbor, whom they could then screw out of as much of his oil revenue as possible? :) And would The West put up with such a replacement to Saddam? I don't see that as a likely development, but am hoping someone here knows more about the old aristocratic families of Iraq, descendants of Faisal, who may be maneuvering to create a constitutional monarchy there post-Saddam
Back to the Islamic Republic of Iraq, the scenario most likely to come to pass.
A natural haven for old school, hard line muslims, the sort who Saddam has sent packing for years. A natural homeland for any number of folks like Abu Nidal or Al Quaeda who wish to pursue certain global goals.
A land less likely to make war on their neighbors, other than to support the fall of every royal family in the Persian Gulf to allow for the Islamic Republic, as a form of government, to spread all over the heartland of Islam.
In short, what sort of karmic judo is America about to experience when it is all over? I wonder.
Alternatively, Iraq could turn in the direction of Turkey, and given its ties to a lot of European and Western governments, that path is also likely, as well as one well backed by trading partners all over Europe, as well as economic ties to Turkey, as well as the US, and even Israel, whose relationship with Turkey continues to improve every year.
What I don't see happening is a "US style democracy" evolving. I am concerned that some people cling to that fantasy.
Having forced a change, for better or for worse, how likely is it that the US could repeat the Marshall Plan type approach that allowed us to convert our enemies into our allies and trading partners after WW II? Unlike then, ours are not the only banks with the capital to finance the rebuilding of Iraq. Too many others have the cash and a spoon in this stew. It, does not strike me as a realistic expectation of any post war Persian Gulf order to think that America will be seen as a liberator in the way the the French saw us in 1944/45.
So which will it be, and why?
A constitutional monarchy?
An Islamic Republic?
A Progressive Muslim State, ala Turkey?
The long term peace and stability of the Middle East rides on the outcome.
Cry 'Havoc' and let slip the Men 'O War!
In War, the outcome is never final. --Carl von Clausewitz--
Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum
John 11:35 - consider why.
In Memory of Pete
In War, the outcome is never final. --Carl von Clausewitz--
Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum
John 11:35 - consider why.
In Memory of Pete