Imminent mistakes in Syria

[kandrathe]

The silver lining to this cloud is that we may end up with a good piece of cooperation between Russia and America on this. And we may not. The details of any deal on the weapons transfer are pending, and may ultimately fail. I hope not, but this isn't suit cased yet.

If we were intrepid here, we'd do our best to set up Putin to win the Nobel Peace Prize for resolving the Syria civil war and bringing about democratic elections in Syria. The Alawite minorities grip on power is slipping, so Russia's interests (e.g. their naval base, their trade ties) would be best served by a stable democratic leader with broader Syrian support. The US intervention would probably prolong the civil war by propping up the better parts of the FSA, which is opposed by forces backed by Lebanese Hezbollah and Iran, as well as Russia. It is also a bad sign when Jabhat al-Nusra targets the FSA, rather than go after Assad.

Russia, and Putin's interest are more related to prestige, than merely territory or position. They want the US, and Europe to deal with them at the adult table. We should cater to that, and let Russia make Syria a better place in the short term, and hopefully, with a more stable Syria in the aftermath of the civil war, we can work together to re-establish a more liberal democracy.