(02-21-2012, 07:01 PM)Gnollguy Wrote: Right, which I think is what Shoju was getting at. Though as you mention the margins on the 2000 election were so close, that as you say if only 10% of the Nader voters voted Gore (so 280,000 votes) that the results likely would have been different, though it depends some on where there votes were cast.
Florida is the only state in play, even if we use a very large share of Nader's votes where they were actually cast, which is the only reasonable assumption. Most states where Nader had large shares were safely Gore states, and most states where he did very badly are safely Bush states.
However, even 10% of Nader's Florida votes would have been enough to swing the state decisively, and with it, the election. Not quite a butterfly flapping its wings, but definitely a case where a relatively small thing has had an enormous potential effect.
-Jester