New blow to the US Affordable Care Act (Obamacare).

[kandrathe]

Overall, there's been a 14% drop in uninsured patients showing up at emergency rooms. A 29% drop in states that expanded Medicare. That's a big drop in expensive ER admissions.

I dug around, and I think it is still too early to tell. In past data, participants in Medicaid visited ER twice the rate of the uninsured (see chart on page 4). National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey: 2004 Emergency Department Summary

All things being equal, we would expect an increase due to the surge in Medicaid program participants. On the other hand, unless there is something about Medicaid that compels participants to visit, I would expect the rates to remain relative to the population of poor in the areas around hospitals. Also, we should be careful with "Correlation does not imply causation" issues.

Due to the ACA, have hospitals changed their behavior? Definitely yes.

I also would guess that now as a part of hospital admission they get them into an exchange, and can get them onto some plan if they are uninsured. The uninsured, would then be insured at least temporarily.

There's also a substantial number of people leaving jobs. Increased job mobility is key to starting small businesses; it's not unreasonable to expect a jump in job-generating ventures.

CBO: Labor Market Effects of the
Affordable Care Act: Updated Estimates

"The estimated reduction stems almost entirely
from a net decline in the amount of labor that workers
choose to supply, rather than from a net drop in busi-
nesses’ demand for labor, so it will appear almost entirely
as a reduction in labor force participation and in hours
worked relative to what would have occurred otherwise
rather than as an increase in unemployment (that is, more
workers seeking but not finding jobs) or underemploy-
ment (such as part-time workers who would prefer to
work more hours per week). "

Again, I think it is too early to understand completely. Some people may find opportunities to start new ventures, however most new ventures will require some capitalization which would be difficult without years of savings and some luck. Most successful entrepreneurs succeed in spite of under-capitalization, through convincing investors to take risks to back their ventures. If $5000 or so needed per year for health insurance is holding them back, it is not likely they would succeed. Also, in the CBO estimates, if you are self-employed (new venture), you still need to file taxes (quarterly) and would be counted as in the labor market.

More likely is that there are a number of people who are employed only for the benefit of affordable health insurance. If you remove the necessity to work, they will choose to not work increasing the number of people supported by government programs.