The Iraq War retrospective Thread

[Thecla]

You suppose wrongly.

Like Moses supposes, I suppose?

Put away your cookie cutter. It is the year 2008, not 2002. Political conditions have changed, both at home and abroad.

Political conditions have changed, though I'm not convinced they've changed as much as you appear to think. But one thing is for sure: the administration has not changed, and it will not change until Jan 20, 2009.

Bush strikes me (just my personal impression) as someone whose certainty is matched only by his lack of self-reflection and his disregard for the opinions of those who don't agree with him. Not a happy combination in a man who holds the levers of the US military, as events have shown.

The Bush administration won't get public support for military action against Iran at this point, especially having cried wolf once already on the nuclear issue. But if they've decided it's necessary, or they think that the wimps who follow them won't possess their wisdom and fortitude, I can believe they might use every means available to try and make it happen.

Perhaps the US military would not go along with Iran as easily as they apparently did with Iraq (Fallon vs Shinseki not withstanding) but I expect you know a lot more about that than I do. As a side note, given Shinseki's fate, I find Bush's current supposed deference to the "military commanders on the ground" in Iraq rather than the "politicians in Washington" --- as if Bush himself were not himself a politician in Washington and the commander-in-chief to boot --- highly ironic.

War is a subset of politics.

Certainly the Iraq war was, and very bad politics at that.

Or am I speaking to a Hersch fanboi here? (Please, say it isn't so.) That self important putz has been predicting a US attack on Iran since 2005.

Your opinion of Hersh is less important than the accuracy of his information. (Probably his reports of abuse at Abu Ghraib would've been dismissed by right-wing critics as the ravings of a left-wing lunatic were it nor for the photographs.) True or not, I find it quite plausible that influential factions within the Bush administration would like to provoke Iran into an armed confrontation with the US before they leave office.

To be clear, I don't believe the US and Iran will get into direct military conflict any time soon (rhetoric aside, it isn't a feasible option for the US) but the fact that it's even conceivable is pretty bad.