The So Called 'War' On Terror
#1
If you want to see what an effective bit of multilateral cooperation can do for the efforts to curb terrorism, check this out:

Bad Guy Caught

If you want to see "fear as a motivator" at it worst, consider:

Fear Mongering

The man portable, hand held, Infra Red guided anti aircraft missile has been around for about a generation. The Soviet SA-7 was an early effective model, though easily defeated by flares and other IR counter measures, while the SA-13 and the U.S. Stinger variants took a "good idea" and improved upon it in terms of the missile's ability to hit what it want to, the plane, and not something else.

Thousands and thousands of the simple yet effective SA-7 were produced and were held in the inventories of many nations, not to mention "non nation" parties.

Stingers were provided to the mujahadeen in Afghanistan during the 80's, and it was common knowledge by the mid 1990's that some hundreds, or even up to a thousand (pick your source and its credibility) were still, shall we say, "unaccounted for." For the last 10-20 years, it could have happened any day of the week, in any city on the planet. I doubt the Russians have 100 % accountability of every SA-13/7

The 'threat' is as old as the terroristberation movements sponsored by the Soviets in the late 1970's, and has thus been around for a generation, but was not well publicized. Those of us who knew looked at the odds and figured:

why worry? Odds are, it won't be me. Life is too short to drive yourself nuts over those things. A similar approach to terrorist attacks for the normal citizen, or for that matter, being in an aircraft accident while on travel. Odds are against it happening to me, don't worry. If you can't stop worrying, either get more Guinness, or see a shrink. ;)

Last year, there was an interesting story from Kenya about a suspected attempt to use an SA-7 to take down an airliner there. A recent arrest in the US of a British arms dealer handling hand held missiles makes headlines.

Why? To whose benifit is it to "heighten" fear? A terrorist. What is the f****ing point of having a "terror threat level" with its color codes, etc? None, except a message that supports the agenda of the terrorist, the perpetuation of fear, and someone who want to benefit from fear mongering. The 1993 attack on the WTC was a massive wake up call: hey, some one is trying to blow you up. The OKC bombing was a massive wake up call: hey, someone took a Hollywood/Clancy Novel idea and put it to work. What's so special about New York, folks? This is an 'threat.' Maybe the likelihood is seen as higher since 9-11, but I'd guess otherwise. Post 9-11, the efforts to get more help from more international players on tracking down and getting hands on terrorists has been, slowly but surely, having some positive results.

Practical solutions to the hand held missile? Few, given the nature of a rear or forward quarter IR shot on a turbo fan engine the state of the art of IR seeker heads.

To defeat an IR missile, you need to

1. see it or know it is coming
2. fly a flight profile that allows you to deceive it (standard departure from an Airport aint it)
3. get beyond its effective range and-or ceiling
4. use countermeasures, both active and passive
5. build aircraft with low IR signatures

Any, all, or a combination of these steps can mitigate or reduce the effectiveness of an IR missile attack of the Stinger-SA-7 variety.

Some problems:

1. Smarter and smarter seeker heads are deception resistant. The U.S. and the French both make some lovely technology along this line.
2. Civil airliners fly predictable patterns. This allows for setting up shots in optimal geometries for the sweetest pK. Given the generaly short range of the hand held IR missile, security personnel can put down a template and know the most likely areas from which a missile fired is likely to be attempted and effective, and can thus concentrate search or suppression measures is finite areas.
3. The aircrew in the typical airlliner can't see the rear quarter missile (that cockpit aint no green house) and can not maneuver a pig like a 747 to avoid the seeker heads on even crude missiles like the SA-7.
4. Flares are generaly deployed once missile launch is detected. Ya gotta see it to defeat it.
5. IR suppression equipment is expensive to back fit into existing aircraft, and has its own shortcomings.

So, what to do? Work on intelligent security measures. And, don't spread panic. Whoops, once again the media and others are the dupes of the terrorist.

Fear mongering plays into the hands of the terrorist, whose field of battle is the human mind.
Cry 'Havoc' and let slip the Men 'O War!
In War, the outcome is never final. --Carl von Clausewitz--
Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum
John 11:35 - consider why.
In Memory of Pete
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#2
Hi,

get more Guinness

Everyone has to have something to believe in. I believe I'll have another beer.

Oh, and as to the rest -- yeah. But I've been saying similar things since 9/11 (and even before). People are stupid. They'll get on the highways with drunks and crappy drivers with a car with under-inflated tires and shot shocks, but they're afraid to fly. They get all warm and fuzzy because they have to stand in line for two hours for a security check that does no damned good at all.

If Heinlein were indeed right and stupidity were a capital crime that was self enforcing, the human race would be extinct. Instead, we breed politicians who, having no clue what would actually do some good, declare a "war" on terror.

Bah.

--Pete

How big was the aquarium in Noah's ark?

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#3
The initial pronouncement about "declaring a war on terror" was accompanied by somecomments that made some sense to me. It will take a long time, it won't all be stuff you see, it won't be a war like those we have seen before, we have to work with world wide scope, etc, etc, ad nauseum.

What I see lately is what strikes me as far too public, and an attempt to make it look like other 'real' wars. I think that the subtlety is lost on more folks than "Joe Six-Pack." The more press you give to terrorists and to terror, the more one plays into their hands.

The quiet knife in the dark works better, IMO, and speaks to them in their own language: be afraid.

As to what to be afraid of? Aye, the other nut behind the wheel is a good place to start! Amen to that one, Deacon!
Cry 'Havoc' and let slip the Men 'O War!
In War, the outcome is never final. --Carl von Clausewitz--
Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum
John 11:35 - consider why.
In Memory of Pete
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#4
Want to watch a movie about fear? Try Bowling for Columbine from Michael Moore...

And remember, fear not only helps the terrorists, but also helps the ruling gouverment to keep the people quiet...
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#5
The people choose to be sheep.

FDR once said:

"We have nothing to fear but fear itself." That is a bit more profound than some folks appreciate.

As for Moore, I should waste my time watching his crap for what reason? I am smart enough to be able to figure things out without listening to his self serving nonsense, however, maybe one day I'll take a look while I am flossing my dog's teeth . . .
Cry 'Havoc' and let slip the Men 'O War!
In War, the outcome is never final. --Carl von Clausewitz--
Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum
John 11:35 - consider why.
In Memory of Pete
Reply
#6
Quote:maybe one day I'll take a look while I am flossing my dog's teeth . . .

Oh the poor dog... Having its teeth flossed while listening to Moore in the background. PETA would be on your ass so fast...

Probably the thing that rankles me about Moore is the fact that he's for the "common people" while at the same time making a huge fortune out of belitteling the "common people." There are far more honest ways to make money, and really far more honest ways to spend it...
When in mortal danger,
When beset by doubt,
Run in little circles,
Wave your arms and shout.

BattleTag: Schrau#2386
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#7
Quote:As for Moore, I should waste my time watching his crap for what reason? I am smart enough to be able to figure things out without listening to his self serving nonsense, however, maybe one day I'll take a look while I am flossing my dog's teeth . . .

How can you refer to Moore's film as crap without having seen the film... just curious...

And being not american but a citizen of the evil old europe, i may have a different view of the present US american politics. It makes me remember too many historical facts.
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#8
Hi,

How can you refer to Moore's film as crap without having seen the film... just curious...

So, you watch all the stupid TV you can, because otherwise you wouldn't know it was stupid?

You put your hand on every burner and radiator, because otherwise you wouldn't know it was hot?

You taste every bit of dog droppings you see, cause otherwise you wouldn't know it was #$%&?

All but fools learn from their own experiences. Smart people learn from the experience of others.

--Pete

How big was the aquarium in Noah's ark?

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#9
Hi,

You forgot: "Whenever anyone within the Beltway gets an idea, they usually get it wrong."

FDR, Truman, JFK, Tricky Dick, maybe Ray-gun could pull off a real serious covert operation against terror and make it work. But Shrub???? To him, the Gunfight at the OK Corral is probably the hight of subtlety. What we have is, IMO, worse than the crap I'd expected -- proving once again the old adage, "Never underestimate the power of human stupidity."

--Pete

How big was the aquarium in Noah's ark?

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#10
Ray-Gun put the then still classified Stealth technology to work on the War on Drugs and rained fire from the black heavens on several South American Targets. We are only finding out just what exactly happened today, close to 20 years later. I don't think we will ever fully know the full extent of what he did. Well, not in my life time. From putting tactical nukes on floating orbital launch platforms called "weather satilites" to concocting a plan to use the very moon it self as part of US defense. Ray-Gun not only had a Star Wars defense plan, he had a frigging Death Star in mind as well.

I agree. The War on Terror should be more like the War on Drugs. The occasional tidbit on the news, but most should be a knife planted squarely between the shoulder blades. Good place to start? Go back to the War on Drugs. Was reading not to long ago about how a LOT of the money for terrorism comes from opium farms and the like. Not enough is being done to strike at the source of the beast, The Shrub is to busy lopping off hydra heads, and one day very soon, it's gonna come around and bite him in the ass. Cutting the heads off of the hydra does no good as we all know. When we were hunting for Osama Bin Hidin, they found an opium farm that would have produced millions of dollars of smack on US streets. The US Army burned it all down. And all it got was a brief 15 second blurb on the news.

I miss Ronnie.
All alone, or in twos,
The ones who really love you
Walk up and down outside the wall.
Some hand in hand
And some gathered together in bands.
The bleeding hearts and artists
Make their stand.

And when they've given you their all
Some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy
Banging your heart against some mad buggers wall.

"Isn't this where...."
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#11
I'm not really a big fan of Dubya Bush myself, but laying aside my amateur judgements regarding his faculties and abilities for a moment I do kind of wonder how much blame or praise lays with *any* president for the actions of his administration. I imagine that a lot of the analysis, planning and implementation of policy falls to the people surrounding the president -- is it really acurate to say "Ronald Reagan did this" or "Bush senior did this"? I know the president has a great deal of clout, but I wonder how much his cabinet actually effects things? Just a thought.
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#12
Hi,

I do kind of wonder how much blame or praise lays with *any* president for the actions of his administration.

This is true of any national leader at any time. Ultimately they have to get their information from somewhere. Usually, they have advisers who interpreted the information and aided in making decisions. And always they had subordinates who executed and enforced those decisions. No single man can single handedly run a country.

On the other hand, "The buck stops here" is a great motto for a national leader. What happens on his watch is his responsibility. Ultimately, that is what the job is all about. He is either strong enough to be the actual leader or he is a puppet. If he's a puppet, then he is responsible for letting others do things in his name. If he is a real leader, then he is responsible for those he chooses to aid him, including being responsible for those those aides choose and so forth. While not (quite) responsible for natural disasters, even there his government's plans and preparation and response *is* his responsibility. For man made disasters, the situation is even more within his responsibility.

So, yeah, if one is looking to dodge the responsibility, there are some arguments that permit it. I find them fallacious. It's not fair, but it is the consequence of command.

--Pete

How big was the aquarium in Noah's ark?

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#13
Hi,

From putting tactical nukes on floating orbital launch platforms called "weather satilites"

Hmmm. Discussed? Yes. Implemented? I doubt it.

Go back to the War on Drugs. Was reading not to long ago about how a LOT of the money for terrorism comes from opium farms and the like. Not enough is being done to strike at the source of the beast,

And what *is* the source of the beast? The millions of customers in first world countries that are all too willing to pay large amounts of money for what are basically cheap to grow, cheap to make compounds? The misguided efforts of those countries to control the morals of their inhabitants that drives the price of those substances up? The distribution system of mostly underprivileged individuals who see this as the only way out of poverty? The farmers in third world countries who can barely (and often not even) make a subsidence living by growing "legal" crops?

You speak of a hydra. The drug problem is indeed a hydra, where every time a customer, a supplier, a grower is cut off, the body grows ten back. And what is the body? Legislation which drives the price up, thus insuring that there will always be those willing to take the risk to grow, process, and distribute the product and also insuring that there will always be a steady supply of foolish customers for whom the illegality adds a mistaken touch of romance.

Sometimes the best thing to do with a war is to end it, realizing that the war was a bad idea in the first place. A war whose only real effect has been to propagate and escalate itself and whose only purpose has been to enforce a hypocritical morality (What percentage of those supporting the so called "War on Drugs" use alcohol, nicotine, caffeine, pain killers, mood modifiers, steroids, Viagra, etc.?) is a war which is neither needed nor beneficial.

--Pete

How big was the aquarium in Noah's ark?

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#14
Another factor to consider is just how much punch does an SA-7 warhead have, especially against a multi-engined job like a 747.

All the more likely the outcome of the first airliner hit by such a terrorist-fired weapon may be an emergency landing rather than a full shoot-down.
Political Correctness is the idea that you can foster tolerance in a diverse world through the intolerance of anything that strays from a clinical standard.
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#15
Exceptionally good point Pete. Reminds me of the Prohibition Arguments by Tessadar Jules. A writer at that time.

I am not convinced "legalizing it" in the case of opium would be such a good idea, or cocaine for that matter, but the logic in the case is sound.

As for the other stuff, look for the book called "The Ronald Reagan Papers." Most of the stuff he did is still highly classified, but some has filtered out due to the PIA that was passed. Ronald created a backroom budgeted behind the wall space program that was not NASA. Still no official name was found. The only real info in this was that this program created "weather satilites" and brought the concept of orbital bombardment to the table. Hmm the weather looks nasty today indeed.

Also in this book. Nancie running the country by visiting an astrologer, daily star charts, and horroscopes for America.
All alone, or in twos,
The ones who really love you
Walk up and down outside the wall.
Some hand in hand
And some gathered together in bands.
The bleeding hearts and artists
Make their stand.

And when they've given you their all
Some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy
Banging your heart against some mad buggers wall.

"Isn't this where...."
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#16
Hi,

Most of the stuff he did is still highly classified

Which is why I've said all I can say on the issue. Again, don't believe everything you read.

--Pete

How big was the aquarium in Noah's ark?

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#17
It depends on the warhead and the "roll."

OK, 4 nice hot engines to hit. Pick one. It either goes up the exhaust, or the warhead detonates "near" the engine. Let's assume a blast frag war head.

Hot metal all over the place, and at least on engine gone south.

Three. Did the wing root get hit? As not a Radar missile, probably not.

Holes in the cabin? LIkely. Depressurization not a bad problem at <10,000 b feet MSL.

Holes in oil, fuel, and hydraulic lines?

Depends on the 'saving throw' rolled by the airliner.

Holes in the fuel tank sufficient to cause ignition of fuel and blow it up?

That depends on the roll from the missile: where did the rest of it, and its remaining unexpended fuel end up? Embedded in the side of the aircraft? Stuck in an engine? Did the engine being blow up cause structural damage to the wing?

So, on a 4 engine bird, lots of chances to make it back to the ground.

On the two enging bird, like a lot of late models . . . thrust loss and assymetry could be a singnificant problem at the high angles of attack on departure, where you are closest to stall speed.

It's a bit of a lottery.
Cry 'Havoc' and let slip the Men 'O War!
In War, the outcome is never final. --Carl von Clausewitz--
Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum
John 11:35 - consider why.
In Memory of Pete
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