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Help with statistics
03-24-2003, 05:05 AM
Post: #1
Help with statistics
someone help me with this number crunching.

I go to calculate the odds of grizwold generating a king's bastard sword of haste at clvl 28 and here's what I come up with

.167(prefix and suffix)x.0555(qlvl 10 base item)x1/3(chance of qlvl 10 item of being a bastard sword)x.07(qlvl 28)x.5(chance of qlvl28 of being kings)x.07(qlvl 27, haste)x2(number of possible slots this can be offered in)

with this I get 1.513x10^-4 or a 1:6609 chance of him generating it, is this accurate or did I make a mistake somewhere?

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03-24-2003, 08:04 AM
Post: #2
Help with statistics
That's what I got, but I encourage you NOT to trust my answer. I am not any good with math at ALL, I'm the one who's a jr. in highschool and has problems deviding without a calculator.

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03-24-2003, 10:05 PM
Post: #3
Help with statistics
I'm actually looking for someone to check my numbers.. not calculations to see if they're correct, maybe Jarulf or someone?

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03-25-2003, 08:32 AM
Post: #4
Help with statistics
>.167(prefix and suffix)

Seems OK.

>x.0555(qlvl 10 base item)x1/3(chance of qlvl 10 item of
>being a bastard sword)

It is really not a 2 step procedure and I don't know how you got the numbers. There are 33 possible base items, so it should be a 1/33=0.0303 chance. That is slightly different from what you got. Perhaps I missed something. What is the first number you have?

>x.07(qlvl 28)x.5(chance of qlvl28 of being kings)

??? You mean picking the prefix? Again, sum up all the possible prefixes (x), then there is basically a 1 in x chance it being a king's. ON a quick count, I got 22 possible prefixes, so 1/22=0.0455.


>x.07(qlvl 27, haste)

Again, I got 15 possible suffixes so 1/15=0.0667. This might be what you had rounded though :)


>x2(number of possible slots this can be offered in)


Ehh, Well, there might be some slight changes for the clvl+1 and clvl+2 slots. For the clvl-1 slots he can't offer it at all. SO 4 possible slots with two of them slightly higher chance than the above.


I don't know if I made some errors. So long since I looked at all this.

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03-25-2003, 07:34 PM
Post: #5
Help with statistics
so the game doesn't roll the qlvl before determining the base item, prefix and suffix? cause I thought it'd pick a qlvl of the item then check the possibilities, like roll a qlvl of 10 then checking the qlvl 10 items, then see that it contains bastard sword, battle axe and maul then pick 1 of those 3 items..

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03-25-2003, 08:23 PM (This post was last modified: 03-25-2003 08:25 PM by Jarulf.)
Post: #6
Help with statistics
malecow,Mar 25 2003, 08:25 PM Wrote:so the game doesn't roll the qlvl before determining the base item, prefix and suffix? cause I thought it'd pick a qlvl of the item then check the possibilities, like roll a qlvl of 10 then checking the qlvl 10 items, then see that it contains bastard sword, battle axe and maul then pick 1 of those 3 items..
No. Note that quality level (qlvl) is a property of each base item and each affix. It is a fixed value for each one.

When you create an item (see my guide for more detailed info), the item is given an item creation level (ilvl). Now, when picking the base item, it will basically make alist of all base items that are (for Grisowld) in the range of ilvl/4 to ilvl, that is who's quality level is in that range. Then pick one at random. When picking affixes, it will make another list (seperate for prefix and suffix) of all that has a quality level in the range of ilvl/2 to ilvl and that can appear on the picked base item type. It then pick one of those at random.

My guide actually has a very complete and exact step by step procedure for how the item is generated, try following it again and see that it works like I said here.

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03-26-2003, 04:49 AM (This post was last modified: 03-26-2003 05:06 AM by malecow.)
Post: #7
Help with statistics
Well here it is with updated numbers at clvl 28
.167{prefix and suffix}
(1/31){bastard sword}
(1/26){king's}
(1/24){haste}
4 {slots it can be offered in}
------------------------------------multiplying it all together I get
3.453*10^-5 or a 1:28958 chance of Grizwold generating it.. doesn't look so easy now..

EDIT: hehe did wirt's stats and I got 4.387x10^-6 or a 1:227928 chance
Double EDIT: just realized that the base items don't include jewelery.. do I just add 2 to the existing 31 or is it done differently?

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03-26-2003, 09:27 AM
Post: #8
Help with statistics
Assuming 31 is the correct number of base items, you would need to subtract 5, because there are three seperate base rings and two base amulets. IIRC, bows have a double chance of being selected, as do some prefix's or suffix's. You would have to take that into account as well.

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03-26-2003, 02:57 PM
Post: #9
Help with statistics
> IIRC, bows have a double chance of being selected,

That is from normal monsters only or something like that. Not in town.

> as do some prefix's or suffix's.

Yes, true. There are some combinations that are not allowed though, so that cut it down some in those cases. My Guide has tables for all of that of course :D

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03-26-2003, 07:30 PM
Post: #10
Help with statistics
yea using the tables I got those numbers cept it should be 1/36 for bastard sword instead if there's 3 rings and 2 amulets slots. Other than that it should all be good.. should make a table of statistics of the most sought out items and make a sticky out of it

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03-31-2003, 02:10 AM
Post: #11
Help with statistics
Why do all those calculations when you can just take whatever gris sells you if you like it, if you don't like what he sells you, then there's always next time. I got a king's sword of haste, only broad sword though, I love it. I also bought a king's/stars from him and a king's battle axe of haste.
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03-31-2003, 02:22 AM
Post: #12
Help with statistics
Hail Saltman,

If you were to lurk to become more familiar with these fora, you would find that you have come across a community of people who really do care about these figures: we want to know the odds of things, formulae, and other mathematical aspects of the game. Then there's Jarulf, who posts lots of numbers and things...I think it's mathematics, but I cannot understand all of it :lol:

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03-31-2003, 01:26 PM
Post: #13
Help with statistics
Elric of Grans,Mar 31 2003, 03:13 AM Wrote:Then there's Jarulf, who posts lots of numbers and things...I think it's mathematics, but I cannot understand all of it  :lol:
Nah, I just make the numbers up as I type. Most people tend to fall for it :D

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04-01-2003, 02:00 PM
Post: #14
Help with statistics
Yess. . .like that Black Knight on lv 16 ^^

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04-06-2003, 05:10 AM
Post: #15
Help with statistics
the things you miss having a 56k modem back when d1 was popular..

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04-08-2003, 03:39 PM
Post: #16
Help with statistics
I'm a newbie at Diablo.Maybe I do not understand something-but what's the point in calculating what the chance is?! You either get it or not...
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04-08-2003, 04:09 PM
Post: #17
Help with statistics
Hi,

However, the way I play, I seldom have characters with great gear. The only "runs" I've ever made where for the Helm of Sprits for my "big" warrior. And I hardly ever played him after getting it. ;)

Many people play for the gear. Multiple Laz runs or hours of starting new games to shop at Griz (or Wirt). For those people, the odds of getting something pretty much converts to the number of hours they have to spend searching. So they like to know the odds so that they can figure if the item is worth the time. I guess playing by itself isn't sufficient reason to spend the time. Go figure.

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