What is Occupy Wallstreet?

[kandrathe]

Have you looked at any of the studies out there?

Yes.

There are numerous studies saying that the future generations of America are doomed to be worse off than their parent generations. That shows that there isn't equality of opportunity when the overall effect is that there will be less people doing better than their parent's generation and all it takes is looking at the present unemployment situation here in the US.

They can be flawed. Often the studies I've seen are sensational, probably to sell magazines, newspapers, or to garner more grant money to produce more flawed research. Narrow minded Malthusians have predicted our impending demise long before Malthus published "An Essay on the Principle of Population". We face many challenges, such as peak oil, and other resource depletion, overpopulation and consumption, climate change, globalization, technological change, increasing longevity, reduced fertility, etc. But, as in the past, our brinksmanship with these challenges is legendary.

But, take for example, employment demand. Yes, we are at a very bad place for employment demand, but that is due to a number of circumstances, with the obvious current trough in boom/bust cycles being just one. You need to also consider the huge number of boomers who will retire over the next 20 years. This will create a labor shortage in those places currently held by 50-60 year old, not to mention the increases in demand in those areas who provide services for the retired, age 60+ demographic. So, we ask ourselves some fundamental questions. Will there suddenly be a dramatic downturn in population? No, to the contrary. There is a continual growth in world population, and a dramatic increase in the demand for goods and services. Who will provide these goods and services? Those over 60 years old? No, probably not. The US, Europe, and China will experience a dramatic reduction in their labor forces in the near term (20 years). Meaning, everyone will become more valuable to the economy -- to the risk of the economy itself.

The current asymptotes project a negative trend line, while just 4 years ago, it would have been equally misguided to project only an upward trend line. We tend to look at things linearly, while the real world works more curvy or chaotically.

Some of the rough statistics running around right now on unemployment rates:

...

These numbers are not exact, but this is what has been shown over the last few months for labor statistics.

I'll take your word for it, and the gist is sufficient.

You cannot tell me that there is equal opportunity when the situation is like this, especially when you are using statistics from studies that show the equality of opportunity eroding over the course of your study (take a look back at your own posts where you show that poverty is increasing, not decreasing as time has gone on).

I have also claimed an eroding of opportunity (not in equality). And, my only difference is that I don't see it as dead, but merely dying a little.

The dying a little to me is instigated by the cozy relationship between governance and industry, globalization, and in the restrictions on individual liberty (such as the CPSIA of 2008, signed by GWB. Subsequently, stepwise repealed as the unintended consequences of attempting to remove all lead from children's products (such as minibikes) are better understood.) It is troubling to me that those 42% in the lowest quintile in 1996, were still in the lowest quintile 10 years later. The problems and solutions are known, although the efficacy of our solutions are what we debate. People remain poor or become poor due to a lack of education, addiction, health issues, discrimination, and as you pointed out earlier, their local economy (and it's opportunities).

A town near where my Mom used to live went from somewhat prosperous with 10,000 people to struggling, and less than 5000 people, due to the crash of the auto industry, and the closing of the towns big employer who supplied parts. The people had to leave to go get a new job in a new town. Now, the remaining 5000 have to pay for infrastructure designed for 10,000 or more. This over built condition is another topic, but it is an ongoing risk in the US due to the unsustainability of maintaining urban sprawl on projects financed with federal, or state grants. Simply put, the tax base per square mile is not sufficient to maintain the infrastructure in that same square mile.

It seems counter intuitive, but this is the type of economic upheaval that will produce the next "Apple". Peoples backs are against the wall, they are forced to take risks, and the economic destruction shatters the weaker entrenched industries creating opportunities for innovative new upstarts. Technology advances continue to make traditional methods (like a brick and mortar university) obsolete, and these dinosaurs need to evolve or risk fossilization. Consider this time period akin to that time just after the asteroid struck. The world changes now, and what emerges afterwards will be dependent on who survives and is positioned to take advantage of the new economic ecosystem.