The Iraq War retrospective Thread

[Thecla]

What do you mean the administration hasn't changed?

I mean exactly that: the same administration, the Bush administration, is in office.

You prefer indecisive people to lead?

More false alternatives, Occhi. But since you ask, yes I'd prefer an indecisive genius over a decisive idiot.

Bush is the worst US president of modern times (and perhaps of all time, but I'm a bit vague about some of those guys in the 20's --- I dare say there were some pretty bad ones in there too). I happened to catch a bit of Bush's news conference with Gordon Brown a little while back. I've never seen a leader so uncomfortable at sharing the stage with a US president. Brown looked like he was going to shrivel up and die every time Bush reached across to grab him by the arm. My favorite quote from GWB in that conference:

And so it's -- I said the other day that, you know, one of the things that I will leave behind is a multilateralism to deal with tyrants, so problems can be solved diplomatically.

Great, we have a conspiracy theorist on the Lounge.

Right. Next I'll be proposing really wacko stuff, like the Bush administration using WMDs as a pretext to invade Iraq.

My statement about war and its relationship to politics needs no qualification, whatsoever. Your remark suggests that the Iraq war is in the past.

As far as statements of universal validity on war and politics are concerned, I'll leave them to you. My remark referred to the invasion of Iraq; I intended no implication that the war is over.

His sources are the usual nebulous band of unnamed sources. I am sorry, I remain skeptical of anything he claims unless he backs up his facts more substantially.

Your skepticism is entirely appropriate. Unfortunately, given the secrecy and lack of transparency in the Bush administration, we seem to be reliant on unnamed sources to find out what they might (or might not) be planning.

I see, so you do think 9-11 was an inside job, huh?

You suppose wrongly, but somehow, I am not surprised.

It's been conceivable since 1979, and even resulted in US forces and Iranian forces trading shots in the Persian Gulf.

What was theoretically conceivable before the US invasion of Iraq has, unfortunately, become all to conceivable in reality after the invasion.

The likely form of any armed action versus Iran is air strikes, Maritime strikes, possibly maritime raids on coastal or port facilities, and likely some Spec Ops.

They surely have drawn up all the plans to attack Iran's suspected nuclear facilities. Some of those would require pretty big bombs, I imagine.

It's a sucker bet even then, unless the leadership in Iran goes out of its way to provoke such an attack. The last two years of probing have shown them the threshold of what will or won't incite a US response: these people aren't stupid.

Iran is going to take brinksmanship as far as it will go. They know the US doesn't have the wherewithal to respond. And if Iran and the US are foolish enough to get involved in armed conflict, it seems to me that there is a significant chance of a serious escalation.

Iraq, no doubt intended as a deterrent to Iran (and perhaps as a military staging post), has ironically proven to be more of a deterrent to the US.

Bush's lame duck position, and Gates reservations about use of armed force are significant political obstacles to a rash, last act of defiance from W before he is put out to pasture.

Is Bush really going to care about what congress thinks? He's already adopted the position that, in a time of self-declared war, he can do anything he thinks fit to "defend" the country. As a lame duck, he doesn't care what anyone thinks, especially since he "knows" he's right. The military is ultimately under his command. They can disagree, resign even, but they have to follow orders.

Anyway, not to disagree with what you say --- I think the obstacles are too significant to allow for a US strike on Iran before W leaves office; but there may well be people in his administration who would dearly love to bomb Iran's nuclear sites before they leave office.